Saturday, July 3, 2010
For me, one of the more interesting things to analyze about any given year's slate of Oscar nominees is how the Best Picture and Best Director lineups overlap. It seems that more often than not, they match each other completely. The last time a director was nominated for a film which didn't receive a Best Picture nod was Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly in 2008. Not surprisingly, over the last ten years or so, most oddball directing nominees come from foreign films.
The Academy's recent change to ten Best Picture nominees has provoked a lot of questions about the ceremony's future. Here is my most recent one: As long as the Academy stays with this format, what are the chances that there will ever be another directing nominee from a film not nominated for Best Picture? With ten nominees, I have to think that the Academy will continue to be more forgiving with regard to foreign pictures and even the more "obscure" films. It seems that out of this past decade's oddball directing nominees, a great majority of these films - including United 93 (Paul Greengrass), Mulholland Drive (David Lynch), City of God (Fernando Meirelles) - would have received a Best Picture nod under the current ten-nominee format.
So, to reiterate, my question to you is this: With the ten-nominee format in place, how likely is it that a director will receive a nomination for a film which is excluded from the Best Picture category?